05-08-2005
The Coming Job Boom
Why hiring is going to be tougher than it was in 1999
According to a widely regarding article in the September issue of Business 2.0 Magazine (one of my favorites) the job/hiring climate in the US is going to reach an even greater degree of insanity than was seen prior to the 2000 bubble bust.
This time, however, it is not based on aberrant speculation and a bubble economy, but instead is rooted in demographics -- trends that have been developing for decades. According to the research:
"During this decade and the next, the baby boom generation will retire. The largest generation in American history now constitutes about 60 percent of what both employers and economists call the prime-age workforce -- that is, workers between the ages of 25 and 54. The cohorts that follow are just too small to take the boomers' place. The shortage will be most acute among two key groups: managers, who tend to be older and closer to retirement, and skilled workers in high-demand, high-tech jobs."
Boom! Much like what has happened in other early-to-industrialize nations, as democratic and capitalistic controls come into play, the age of the work force tends to increase while birth rates simultaneously decrease. Japan is very acutely experiencing this condition now, where over half the population is over 50.
And there are quite a few experts who are in agreement with these findings:
"Executives at Cigna (CI), Intel (INTC), SAS, Sprint (PCS), Whirlpool (WHR), WPP (WPPGY), and Adecco (the world's largest placement firm) have told Business 2.0 that they, too, worry that the supply of labor is about to fall seriously short of demand. Former treasury secretary and current Harvard University president Larry Summers regards a skilled labor shortage as all but inevitable."
Based on demographics, NOT the economy
What is particularly interesting about these trends is that they are based on demographics -- forces in the culture and development of our society that have been in motion for many decades and have behind them much momentum. The predictions listed in this research are based on the economy continuing to grow at the EXACT SAME rate its been growing, on average, the past 45 years: approximately 3.2%.
Unlike the dot-bomb, no economic miracle is needed to create this very serious job crunch.
As the boomers retire, the workforce will stop growing ...
The U.S. has always been able to count on an expanding labor force. But as the boomers are replaced by a smaller generation, the number of workers between the prime working ages of 25 and 54 will stagnate.
These trends effect education as well
Prime-age workers (ages 25-54) with more than a high school degree
During the past 20 years, the share of the workforce that had attended college grew from just over 40 percent to almost 60 percent. That figure will barely budge during the next two decades.
Posted by peter on May 08, 2005 | Headless Hunter Weblog
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